Week 16 Overachievers & Underperformers (Fantasy Football)
Ah, yes, Week 16. The often underappreciated semi-finals week can leave top seeds feeling like failures if they lose, and lower seeds feeling like geniuses if they pull off an upset. Let’s review how some of the best and worst performers did this week and break down the data. We will use predictive and advanced metrics such as Targets Per Route Run (TPRR), the Bell Cow Report, and Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) to parse through the weeds and decide what was random and what is here to stay.
If you haven’t already, check out the Advanced Metrics Glossary here!
Targets Per Route Run (TPPR)
Targets Per Route Run is the number of targets a player receives divided by the number of routes they run. This metric highlights a player’s involvement in the passing game, displaying which receivers are favored targets when they are on the field running routes.
Overachiever: Jaylen Waddle (Miami Dolphins)
TPRR: 41%
Stat Line: 5/72
Fantasy Points: 9.7
Quinn Ewers gave it the good ole college try last week, relying heavily on Waddle. A few parameters stick out, including:
- First Read: 34.8%
- Yards Per Reception: 14.4
- QB Passer Rating when Targeted: 42.1
The Good: The first read targets are nice, proving the Dolphins plan to deploy a talented incumbent that can make plays with the ball. It was the 13th-best rate last week in the league, and good fantasy managers know the most important stat is opportunity. When setting lineups, we want guys we know will get the chance to score points.
14.4 yards per reception opens up some explosive opportunities, so it’s good to see they trusted the young QB to throw some bombs. Waddle sets up as an emergency FLEX option in championship week if you’re desperate.
The Bad: Ewers 42.1 Rating is disgusting on those balls. The average is 80, and if he isn’t capable of being serviceable on those, it will be hard to trust him in your most important matchup of the year.
Ewers likely does better with a start under his belt. The main takeaway: Dolphins trust him enough to throw the downfield ball, and Waddle can hopefully make something happen.
Quinn Ewers might actually be alright in this system.
Wheels up for Waddle and Waller moving forward. pic.twitter.com/gZ6Hfp3G8g
— Nicho Roessler (@NichoRoessler) December 21, 2025
Underachiever: Brian Thomas Jr. (Jacksonville Jaguars)
TPPR: 5%
Stat Line: 2/18/0
Fantasy Points: 2.3
Welp, hope you weren’t relying on Thomas to do anything. Instead, Parker Washington went hamburglar to the tune of 6/145/1. What’s concerning is that the Jaguars are on a tear and likely won’t need to make any changes. They destroyed a one-seed at home, and Lawrence proved to us all he was worth a number 1 overall draft pick.
You can’t play him. It’s too risky when guys like Parker Washington and Brenton Strange are getting 4x the target share.
Bell Cow Report
The Bell Cow is an RB who dominates his backfield in touches as both a rusher and receiver, displaying an elite skill set and putting the team on his back.
Overachiever: Ashton Jeanty (Las Vegas Raiders)
% of Team Carries: 88.9%
% Target Share: 8.7%
% Team Snaps: 92.5%
Stat Line: 24/128/1 Rush | 1/60/1 Rec
Fantasy Points: 31.9
Apparently, he’s worth the first round draft capital. The one reception and sub-10% target share is concerning, but the upside is there. He gets a Giants team allowing 24.3 points per game on the year to opposing RBs. If you have him, start him with confidence.
If the Raiders can fix their OLine, Jeanty will be a massive problem for teams in 2026. pic.twitter.com/UJQVg2r0LB
— JPA (@jasrifootball) December 22, 2025
Underachiever: Javonte Williams (Dallas Cowboys)
% of Team Carries: 39.1%
% Target Share: 9.4%
% Team Snaps: 57.1%
Stat Line: 9/34/0 Rush | 2/9/0 Rec
Fantasy Points: 5.3
Ew. The Chargers reminded the league that they might catch up to the Broncos if their defense continues playing this well. Williams’ biggest perk was knowing no other back would be involved. Suddenly, Malik Davis pops in out of nowhere to get eight carries in back-to-back games.
What’s concerning about this game is that this may be who the Cowboys are now that they are eliminated from the playoffs. This week, he gets the Commanders, who have no problem shelling out fantasy points. The issue is, it’s usually through the passing game. Find other options at RB if you can. He was limited in Tuesday’s practice.
Expected Fantasy Points (xFP)
Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity. It uses stats to project a player’s would-be fantasy points based on actual in-game metrics.
Overperformer: Chase Brown (Cincinnati Bengals)
xFP: 14.4
Fantasy Points: 30.9
In fantasy, just get three TDs, and it’s all good. While he certainly outdid himself, expect it again against the 28th-ranked Cardinals. ARI hands out an average of 23 points per game to opposing RBs. Joe Burrow and the Bengals look to stay competitive no matter what is on the line for the rest of the year.
A pretty nice day at the office for Chase Brown. pic.twitter.com/uCJOcGVj5Z
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) December 23, 2025
Underperformer: Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit Lions)
xFP: 27.3
Fantasy Points: 17.8
The initial onlook doesn’t look too terrible. 17.8 points is a solid game from an RB…but he was one of the highest-ranked players this week, and the Steelers limited him. We can’t expect three TDs every game, so take the blow and move on to next week. He sets up as the second-ranked RB against MIN.