Targets Per Route Run: Week 16 (Fantasy Football)

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Welcome back to the weekly Targets Per Route Run Report. Hopefully, you made it to your semifinals in your league, or you were the upper echelon of fantasy savants who took the week off with a bye.

Quick refresher: TPRR = targets ÷ routes run. It’s an on-field efficiency signal that often leads production by a week or two. Throughout this series, if you see a percentage after a player’s name, that is his TPRR unless otherwise indicated.

As a general guideline, anything below ~20% is risky; 25–30% is excellent, and anything above 30% is elite territory.

Week 15 TPRR Leaders

TPRR-Wk15-Leaders

Data: pff.com

Looking to Week 16

  • Michael Wilson (31.4% TPRR) continues to get it done for fantasy managers, but his 71% start rate in Sleeper leagues is still too low. Over the last five weeks, Wilson has been the WR1 in fantasy. If Marvin Harrison is out against Atlanta, Wilson is a top fantasy option and should be trusted in your lineup. Even if Harrison returns, however, Wilson has earned a consistent enough role to be a WR2 or WR3 for the fantasy playoffs.
  • Justin Jefferson has possibly been the disappointment of the season at the WR position. He’s been mine, at least. The hardest part about having JJets on your roster is that he hasn’t been hurt! If by some miracle you have him and are still in the hunt for a FootClan title, take heart. Jefferson was targeted relentlessly by a rejuvenated JJ McCarthy, but several missed connections, a couple of uncharacteristic drops, and a TD canceled out by a penalty made Jefferson’s final line underwhelming. Again. But Jefferson is too good, and there are too many targets for him to be a non-factor over the final two weeks. Fool me once, twice, three times a lady, but I’m back in on Jefferson in New York for the semifinals.
  • Luther Burden was a hot pickup with Rome Odunze missing more time in Week 15, drawing seven targets despite only playing on 39% of offensive snaps and coming up lame with an ankle injury in the victory over Cleveland. However, neither Burden nor Odunze has practiced this week and are both in danger of missing Week 16. DJ Moore (17% TPRR) looks like a decent bet to benefit from the opportunity again and could finally string two good games together. On the other hand, Colston Loveland (23% TPRR in Week 15) is earning targets at a higher clip, Cole Kmet is still in the picture, and giving D’Andre Swift more rush attempts would be Plan A against the Micah Parsons-less Packers. There is opportunity here, but it’s hard to know who will cash in.

TPRR – The Full Lists

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Week 15 Targets Per Route Run – WR – Min 15 routes
Rank Player Team Routes Targets TPRR
1 Luther Burden III CHI 16 7 43.8%
2 Puka Nacua LA 26 11 42.3%
3 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 42 17 40.5%
4 Mack Hollins NE 21 8 38.1%
5 Keenan Allen LAC 19 7 36.8%
6 Mike Evans TB 28 10 35.7%
7 Ja’Marr Chase CIN 43 15 34.9%
8 Davante Adams LA 25 8 32.0%
9 Devaughn Vele NO 19 6 31.6%
10 Michael Wilson ARZ 35 11 31.4%
11 Justin Jefferson MIN 26 8 30.8%
12 Troy Franklin DEN 23 7 30.4%
13 Zay Flowers BLT 17 5 29.4%
14 Ricky Pearsall SF 24 7 29.2%
15 Rashee Rice KC 38 11 28.9%
16 Emeka Egbuka TB 25 7 28.0%
17 Courtland Sutton DEN 36 10 27.8%
17 Van Jefferson TEN 18 5 27.8%
19 Christian Watson GB 19 5 26.3%
20 Kevin Austin Jr. NO 20 5 25.0%
20 Jalen Nailor MIN 16 4 25.0%
22 Brian Thomas Jr. JAX 29 7 24.1%
23 Deebo Samuel WAS 21 5 23.8%
24 Chris Olave NO 38 9 23.7%
24 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 38 9 23.7%
26 Isaiah Williams NYJ 30 7 23.3%
27 David Sills V ATL 43 10 23.3%
28 CeeDee Lamb DAL 39 9 23.1%
28 Darius Slayton NYG 39 9 23.1%
30 Cooper Kupp SEA 31 7 22.6%
31 Jameson Williams DET 40 9 22.5%
32 Adonai Mitchell NYJ 36 8 22.2%
33 Rashid Shaheed SEA 32 7 21.9%
34 Wan’Dale Robinson NYG 43 9 20.9%
35 Chimere Dike TEN 24 5 20.8%
36 Brandin Cooks BUF 15 3 20.0%
37 Jakobi Meyers JAX 36 7 19.4%
38 Jayden Reed GB 31 6 19.4%
39 John Metchie III NYJ 26 5 19.2%
40 Stefon Diggs NE 16 3 18.8%
41 Tre Harris LAC 27 5 18.5%
41 Ryan Flournoy DAL 27 5 18.5%
43 Terry McLaurin WAS 22 4 18.2%
44 Khalil Shakir BUF 28 5 17.9%
44 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 28 5 17.9%
46 Kendrick Bourne SF 17 3 17.6%
47 DJ Moore CHI 30 5 16.7%
48 Josh Downs IND 25 4 16.0%
49 Matthew Golden GB 19 3 15.8%
50 Jauan Jennings SF 32 5 15.6%
51 Jalen Coker CAR 26 4 15.4%
52 Lil’Jordan Humphrey DEN 28 4 14.3%
52 Tetairoa McMillan CAR 28 4 14.3%
52 Parker Washington JAX 21 3 14.3%
52 Tyquan Thornton KC 21 3 14.3%
56 Darnell Mooney ATL 43 6 14.0%
57 Jaylen Waddle MIA 29 4 13.8%
58 Xavier Worthy KC 30 4 13.3%
58 Nico Collins HST 30 4 13.3%
60 Jack Bech LV 24 3 12.5%
61 Olamide Zaccheaus CHI 25 3 12.0%
61 D.K. Metcalf PIT 25 3 12.0%
63 Joshua Palmer BUF 17 2 11.8%
64 Xavier Legette CAR 26 3 11.5%
64 Tyler Lockett LV 26 3 11.5%
66 Jordan Addison MIN 18 2 11.1%
66 A.J. Brown PHI 18 2 11.1%
66 Mitchell Tinsley CIN 18 2 11.1%
69 George Pickens DAL 37 4 10.8%
70 Chris Godwin TB 38 4 10.5%
71 Ladd McConkey LAC 29 3 10.3%
72 Jalen McMillan TB 20 2 10.0%
73 Jalen Brooks ARZ 31 3 9.7%
74 Jerry Jeudy CLV 42 4 9.5%
74 Dontayvion Wicks GB 21 2 9.5%
76 Isaiah Bond CLV 32 3 9.4%
77 Romeo Doubs GB 33 3 9.1%
78 Gage Larvadain CLV 28 2 7.1%
79 Tre Tucker LV 30 2 6.7%
80 Mason Tipton NO 34 2 5.9%
81 Konata Mumpfield LA 19 1 5.3%
82 Isaiah Hodgins NYG 39 2 5.1%
83 Marquez Valdes-Scantling PIT 21 1 4.8%
83 Jayden Higgins HST 21 1 4.8%
85 Malik Washington MIA 24 1 4.2%
86 Elic Ayomanor TEN 25 1 4.0%
86 Kayshon Boutte NE 25 1 4.0%
88 Alec Pierce IND 28 1 3.6%
88 Isaac TeSlaa DET 28 1 3.6%
90 Andrei Iosivas CIN 40 1 2.5%

Season To Date

Targets Per Route Run – Through Week 15 (Min 210 routes)
Rank Player Team Routes Targets TPRR + /-
1 Puka Nacua LA 351 124 35.3% 0
2 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 394 126 32.0% 0
3 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 436 128 29.4% 3
4 Ja’Marr Chase CIN 522 152 29.1% 0
5 Rashee Rice KC 265 77 29.1% -2
6 Drake London ATL 305 86 28.2% -1
7 Davante Adams LA 410 111 27.1% 0
8 CeeDee Lamb DAL 368 96 26.1% 0
9 Justin Jefferson MIN 471 117 24.8% 1
10 Keenan Allen LAC 391 97 24.8% 3
11 Nico Collins HST 422 104 24.6% -2
12 Emeka Egbuka TB 476 116 24.4% 2
13 Chris Olave NO 509 124 24.4% -1
14 Zay Flowers BLT 412 99 24.0% 4
15 Garrett Wilson NYJ 225 54 24.0% 1
16 A.J. Brown PHI 423 101 23.9% -5
17 Stefon Diggs NE 342 81 23.7% 0
18 Jaylen Waddle MIA 383 89 23.2% -3
19 Deebo Samuel WAS 366 85 23.2% 1
20 Wan’Dale Robinson NYG 493 114 23.1% -1
21 Adonai Mitchell NYJ 230 53 23.0% #N/A
22 Josh Downs IND 293 66 22.5% -1
23 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 439 98 22.3% 0
24 Troy Franklin DEN 414 92 22.2% 3
25 Tetairoa McMillan CAR 458 100 21.8% -1
26 George Pickens DAL 523 114 21.8% -4
27 Khalil Shakir BUF 368 79 21.5% -2
28 Rome Odunze CHI 410 87 21.2% 0
29 D.K. Metcalf PIT 425 90 21.2% -3
30 Jakobi Meyers JAX 407 85 20.9% 0
31 DeVonta Smith PHI 455 95 20.9% -2
32 Brian Thomas Jr. JAX 373 75 20.1% 4
33 Jauan Jennings SF 364 73 20.1% -1
34 Rashid Shaheed SEA 436 86 19.7% 5
35 Olamide Zaccheaus CHI 296 58 19.6% -1
36 Marvin Harrison Jr. ARZ 351 68 19.4% 5
37 Romeo Doubs GB 382 74 19.4% -4
38 Parker Washington JAX 311 60 19.3% -1
39 Michael Wilson ARZ 534 103 19.3% 11
40 Keon Coleman BUF 292 56 19.2% -9
41 Travis Hunter JAX 225 43 19.1% 3
42 Ladd McConkey LAC 493 94 19.1% -4
43 Courtland Sutton DEN 510 97 19.0% 8
44 Tee Higgins CIN 426 81 19.0% 1
45 Jayden Higgins HST 295 56 19.0% -10
46 Marquise Brown KC 320 60 18.8% 0
47 Ryan Flournoy DAL 236 44 18.6% 0
48 Marvin Mims Jr. DEN 221 41 18.6% 9
49 Dontayvion Wicks GB 224 41 18.3% -6
50 Christian Kirk HST 214 39 18.2% -10
51 Jordan Addison MIN 369 67 18.2% -3
52 Chimere Dike TEN 325 59 18.2% 2
53 Malik Washington MIA 305 55 18.0% -11
54 Mack Hollins NE 308 55 17.9% 5
55 Xavier Worthy KC 377 67 17.8% -2
56 Ricky Pearsall SF 251 44 17.5% 4
57 Jerry Jeudy CLV 504 88 17.5% -5
58 Alec Pierce IND 380 66 17.4% -9
59 Calvin Austin III PIT 262 45 17.2% -3
60 Cooper Kupp SEA 338 57 16.9% 1
61 Jameson Williams DET 471 78 16.6% 1
62 Elic Ayomanor TEN 413 65 15.7% -4
63 Matthew Golden GB 223 35 15.7% 1
64 Darnell Mooney ATL 373 58 15.5% -1
65 Greg Dortch ARZ 215 33 15.3% 1
66 Tre Tucker LV 489 74 15.1% -2
67 Quentin Johnston LAC 430 65 15.1% 1
68 Sterling Shepard TB 352 53 15.1% 1
69 Xavier Legette CAR 340 51 15.0% -2
70 Devaughn Vele NO 242 36 14.9% 8
71 Kendrick Bourne SF 305 45 14.8% -1
72 DJ Moore CHI 452 66 14.6% -1
73 Tyquan Thornton KC 258 36 14.0% -1
73 KaVontae Turpin DAL 215 30 14.0% 3
75 Van Jefferson TEN 334 46 13.8% 6
76 Darius Slayton NYG 345 47 13.6% 7
77 Pat Bryant DEN 251 34 13.5% -2
78 Cedric Tillman CLV 259 35 13.5% -4
79 Tez Johnson TB 283 38 13.4% -2
80 Isaiah Bond CLV 294 39 13.3% -7
81 Tyler Lockett LV 319 42 13.2% -2
82 Jalen Nailor MIN 349 44 12.6% 2
83 Xavier Hutchinson HST 340 42 12.4% -1
84 Kayshon Boutte NE 316 39 12.3% -4
85 Dont’e Thornton Jr. LV 218 25 11.5% 1
86 Rashod Bateman BLT 286 32 11.2% 1
87 Jalen Tolbert DAL 224 25 11.2% 1
88 JuJu Smith-Schuster KC 305 34 11.1% -3
89 David Sills V ATL 285 29 10.2% 5
90 Andrei Iosivas CIN 478 46 9.6% 0
91 Chris Moore WAS 218 20 9.2% 0
92 Brandin Cooks BUF 325 28 8.6% 1
93 Nick Westbrook-Ikhine MIA 222 18 8.1% -1
94 Isaac TeSlaa DET 212 14 6.6% #N/A
95 Jahan Dotson PHI 321 21 6.5% 0
96 Arian Smith NYJ 223 12 5.4% 0

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