Dynasty Film Review: Week 16 (Fantasy Football)
Borg, Betz, and Jason celebrate their playoff successes, as Borg anticipates advancing to multiple championships this season. The Ballers discuss how players like Jonathan Taylor went from being the reason we win a championship to simply being part of championship rosters. Jason believes championship teams will need one to two of those “win because of” guys. Taylor is no longer that type of asset, especially considering his schedule. Betz quips that while Taylor got teams to the playoffs, it may be Kyle Pitts that brings it home. He also reminds us that it is better to look at the season in three or four chunks.
Borg reflected on this week’s waiver wire rankings, where he noticed a number of those players were unrostered in Dynasty Leagues, like Audric Estime and Jawhar Jordan. Jason recounts past championships won with similar players like Tim Hightower or Jarrett Patterson. The ends of NFL seasons are wild.
Borg previews the episode where they will answer some listener questions, including many about Trevor Lawrence, league settings, and playoff questions.
Before we get into the Weekly Rewind, remember to listen to The Fantasy Footballers podcast, available wherever you listen to your podcasts.
Weekly Rewind
Gunnar Helm
Borg notes that while Helm’s film has been inconsistent and his combine subpar, he recently caught a “big boy” TD. Since the Titans’ Week 10 bye, Helm leads the team in receptions, seeing targets on 29% of routes—a rate second only to Harold Fannin Jr. among NFL TEs. Borg sees potential for a Jake Ferguson-like rise as Chig Okonkwo nears 2026 free agency. Betz reminds us that Helm led a stacked Texas roster in receptions, making him a vital player to keep on the radar.
Tyler Shough
Jason is bullish on Shough, who is playing his way into the starting gig with mobility and passing success. Despite a lack of weapons beyond Chris Olave—who cost Shough a win with a dropped TD—Jason notes he is winning games and devaluing the Saints’ draft position. While the film showed some missed reads of open receivers, Jason was “extremely impressed” by a pinpoint-accurate throw to Olave in tight coverage. He remains undervalued as draft rumors continue to suppress his market.
Chris Olave scores, and the Saints tie it up with the PAT!
Tyler Shough led a fantastic drive for New Orleans.
(via NFL) pic.twitter.com/oWjOij9Sxi
— Preme Football (@premefootball) December 15, 2025
Colby Parkinson
Betz views Parkinson (the fantasy TE6) as a “legit weapon” in the offense with Tyler Higbee out. His 55% red zone target rate is higher than Davante Adams’, fueled by designed screens and play-action boots. Between this usage and Adams’ injury, Betz sees league-winning potential. Given Parkinson’s contract, we can expect this usage to continue into 2026 despite rookie Terrance Ferguson waiting in the wings. Facing a playoff start decision between Parkinson and Tyler Warren, Jason and Betz lean toward Parkinson based on schedule-adjusted metrics, though Borg expects to rethink the choice “38 times.”
Mailbag
David Butler II-Imagn Images
Drake Maye or Jacoby Brissett?
Borg faces a playoff dilemma, noting Jason’s observation that Brissett has delivered top-12 performances every week since starting. Betz questions if the Atlanta defense will show up while traveling west; Borg admits he doesn’t expect them to, leading Betz to conclude Brissett is the safer play. However, Jason maintains that Maye’s “otherworldly” play is the catalyst for winning championships. Personally, I’m with Jason on this one, and I would prefer to fail with Drake Maye than with Brissett, who could turn into a pumpkin.
Is Trevor Lawrence Finally Leveling Up?
Lawrence currently sits at QB8 following a strong stretch, but Jason points out that four of his last six big games were against bottom-tier defenses (Raiders, Cardinals, Titans, and Jets). While Jason credits Lawrence for last week’s “Masterclass,” he remains skeptical of a year-six “level-up,” viewing him as an inconsistent, above-average starter rather than a “great” one. Jason suggests moving Lawrence while his value is high. Both Jason and Betz prefer Brock Purdy over Lawrence, but take Lawrence over C.J. Stroud and Baker Mayfield, citing Lawrence’s younger weapons and age advantage.
Should You Use Max Points for Draft Order?
Jason confirms that all Ballers leagues use reverse “max points for” (tracked via Sleeper) to determine draft order. Similar to best ball, this uses optimal roster decisions to reflect true team strength while effectively eliminating tanking. In practice, this determines the order for the bottom six non-playoff teams, though Jason notes an alternative where it applies to everyone except the two finalists, who draft 11th and 12th.
Are First Round Picks Overrated?
Jason believes top-tier picks are warranted, but the bottom half of the first round should be traded for known commodities. Borg notes that RBs often receive artificial boosts into the late first round due to scarcity. Regarding “punting” value (trading a 2026 1st for a 2027 1st), Betz only advises doing so if you are highly confident the future pick is top-half. Jason warns against it, arguing that you lose a full year of production and growth, and would only trade back to upgrade a future round.
How Should You Handle Fantasy Elimination?
For managers with fantasy and reality teams already out of the playoffs, the Ballers suggest pivoting to DFS to keep some skin in the game or simply enjoying the NFL games without the emotional stress of fantasy outcomes.
Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images
Is Concern Rising for Ashton Jeanty?
Worry is mounting for the Raiders’ rookie, who is averaging just 2.9 yards per carry since his Week 8 bye. On the season, 249 attempts have produced only three 20+ yard plays—fewer than Ashton Dulin’s four such plays on just eleven touches. Jason warns that the Raiders’ offense has “phoned it in,” making Jeanty a risky semi-final start against Houston.
Will the Jaguars Lock Up Travis Etienne Jr. Next Season?
Following a strong run, the Ballers expect Jacksonville to re-sign Etienne, believing his chemistry with Lawrence makes the Jaguars his ideal fantasy landing spot. With the team likely reaching 12 wins, Jason expects the franchise to keep the core together to maintain fan excitement, even as Etienne approaches age 27.
Week 15 Film Deep Dive
Kyle Pitts
Pitts delivered a career-best 11-166-3 line on 12 targets—his first 100-yard game since recording three as a rookie. While he had a multi-TD game in 2024, this performance suggests Atlanta is finally maximizing him.
The film showed that Atlanta used Pitts in the middle of the field quite a bit. About 1/3 of his routes were in-breaking or crossing routes where his frame and speed give him a natural advantage. Typically, when running these routes, his frame provides a significant positional leverage on most box-safeties or nickel corners. As for LBs, his speed is a natural mismatch, which becomes extremely evident on the crossers.
Pitts was also targeted frequently on the perimeter. Pitts ran an excellent Out and Up for a 36-yd gain. On this play, we see good pacing to let the adjacent route create a natural pick. As the defender tries to make up for the space created by the pick, Pitts bursts upfield after selling the flat with his hips, head, and shoulders. On his very next target, he runs a little hesitation fade. Pitts’ explosiveness takes full advantage of the breakdown in communication between defenders.
This hesitation Fade was a nice play among so many others in this game. Tampa Bay simply could not adjust to take him away all game. pic.twitter.com/3K1rS3xNW9
— Vernon Meighan (@FFB_Vern) December 17, 2025
All of these qualities are what we were hoping for in Pitts’ career: explosiveness, speed, and mismatch abilities deployed properly. He does have his challenges, especially in the areas of change of direction and quickness, which limit his total upside in my mind. The question remains: can we trust our eyes? Is this a sign of things to finally come, or is this just another flash in the pan?
Now 25 and in his fifth season—just two years older than Tyler Warren—Pitts remains a polarizing “sell-high” candidate. While his ceiling is tempting, I wouldn’t overspend an early 2026 first-round pick and fall for the “banana in the tailpipe”; however, acquiring him for a late first or a package of seconds is a calculated risk worth taking.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Bill burst back onto the scene in the vacuum created by Chris Rodriguez Jr.’s injury. Generating 96 yards and a score on 18 carries for 5.3 YPC and a 72% success rate, this was his best performance since Week 5 against the Los Angeles Chargers. For context, the New York Giants allow the third most fantasy points to RBs, which takes the shine off of his stat line. With that said, if we believe a player to have talent, it is important to see them perform well in good matchups.
Bill had several nice runs, including four of 10+ yards, and we will look at two of them. First, we see good pacing and vision by Bill on this 11-yard gash. The design of this run was nice, where the RT pulls and inserts into the backside A-gap while the RG executes his Zone block. Ben Sinnott executes an impactful cut block on Abdul Carter to prevent backside pursuit. Bill anticipates how the blocking will develop and works upfield first to avoid Carter, then cuts right off the RG’s hip. This effective use of space is something I like to see consistently in young RBs, as it indicates a potential ability to create when there is less space. It’s too bad he slips with one defender to avoid.
The cutback was nice on that play, and he does it again on this TD run. The spacing and responsibilities of the Giants' defense appeared to create the opportunity. A good cutback and burst into the open space = easy TD! pic.twitter.com/GWXW5ScL6j
— Vernon Meighan (@FFB_Vern) December 17, 2025
On this second play, we get to see part of the reason why the Giants are bad against the run, but we also get to see Bill exploit it. One thing I really liked about this play is that there was no hesitation when the DT gets into the backfield so quickly. One could argue that the DT flashing in the backfield forced the cutback. However, in cases where DTs blow up the line like this, RBs normally show more of a gather or an overly excessive jump cut in response to the surprise. It seems more likely that Bill was anticipating this cutback lane, given the initial defensive spacing, the play design, and the aggressive pursuit by #58.
Per NextGenStats insights, Bill “has gained positive EPA on 56.3% of his outside carries (highest) while 22.9% of such rushes have earned 10+ yards (2nd-highest),” a testament to the threat he can be on the edges. Perhaps this provides context for how aggressively the defense flowed to the outside. Now that he is showing cutback ability on film, perhaps that strategy has been proven untenable. For Bill specifically, I look forward to when the game slows down for him. He will surely take advantage of overaggressiveness and poor gap discipline.
We all need to see what Bill can be. Many were high on him when he came out blazing in a couple of early splash games. As his opportunities diminished, the overall belief from the community died down. This can happen with rookies, and his 7th-round draft capital exacerbates the ebbs and flows in his perceived value. He has a solid test coming up against Philadelphia twice and Dallas in between (13th and 8th-most fantasy points to RBs, respectively). If he can put together a few good games, he may be worth an off-season trade right as the 2026 draft hype is building. The hope over these next three weeks is that Washington gives him the necessary opportunities for a proper assessment.
If you made it to the semi-final round of the playoffs, the best of luck to you! Otherwise, see the Ballers’ advice above and find some enjoyment in DFS or the game itself. Until next time!