Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 17

Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!

Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective, as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:

• Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
• Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
• Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects

And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and one of the Ballers!

Rookie Opportunity Dashboard

To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position.

For reference:

• Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric closely tied to volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
• Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between their actual production and expected fantasy value. This metric will generally fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
• Opportunity Share represents the percentage of targets and rush attempts a player accounts for on their team.

If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.

Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 16:

• With Kimani Vidal leaving the game due to injury, Omarion Hampton saw an improvement in usage compared to last week. His usage value of 13.9 Expected Fantasy Points was his highest since Week 3, finishing as a top 20 fantasy RB this past week. Keep an eye on Vidal’s injury, as that could impact Hampton’s production heading into the fantasy championships.
• For those who started Ashton Jeanty against the Texans, you likely advanced to the next round of the playoffs after an elite performance of 31.3 half-PPR points. He finished the week with a 53.1% opportunity share and +17.6 Fantasy Points Over Expected, one of the most efficient performances by an RB this year. 
• Tetairoa McMillan bounced back in Week 16 with a borderline WR1 performance, commanding an elite 32.3% target share and 45.3% air yards share. He is now the only rookie WR who still ranks within the top 20 in both half-PPR scoring and Expected Fantasy Points. Emeka Egbuka could still join McMillan on that list depending on how he performs to close out the season.
• Isaac TeSlaa just set career-highs in total targets (7) and half-PPR points (13.2). However, he only achieved a 13.5% target share, indicating that his production was largely a result of a pass-heavy game script. 

Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

• While it did not translate into a TE1 performance, Tyler Warren remains a key piece of the Colts’ offense, commanding over 20% of their targets in two games with Philip Rivers. Even though he only scored 4.5 half-PPR points, he finished the week as the TE2 in Expected Fantasy Points (14.3).
• Harold Fannin remains Shedeur Sanders’ main target, finishing as the TE1 in fantasy points in Week 16. This is the ninth consecutive game where Fannin has had at least a 20% target share, highlighting his elite usage with the Browns.
• While many were expecting Colby Parkinson to continue his streak of TE1 production, it was Terrance Ferguson who scored the most fantasy points for the Rams at 10.8. Despite that, his 8.3% target share indicates that he remains behind several players on the depth chart. Unless his usage improves, Ferguson will likely remain a volatile option for fantasy managers.
• Tyler Shough has quietly finished as a QB1 in usage value in four of his last five games, leading all rookies in Expected Fantasy Points (22.2) in Week 16. While his efficiency will continue to limit his weekly upside (only QB29 in EPA per Play), he should still be a streamable QB2 to close out the season based on his volume in recent weeks. 

Dynasty Stock Report

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De’Von Achane – Miami Dolphins, RB – Stock Up

Despite a disappointing year for the Miami Dolphins, De’Von Achane has proven that he belongs in the conversation as one of the most valuable dynasty RBs. Even with all the injuries and changes to Miami’s offensive ecosystem, Achane has remained the one consistent producer in Mike McDaniel’s offense. We saw that again in Week 16, as Achane totaled over 15 fantasy points despite the benching of Tua Tagovailoa. And through 15 games this season, Achane has averaged elite usage and efficiency:

• 14.8 Expected Fantasy Points (RB6)
• +3.68 Fantasy Points Over Expected (RB3)
• 38.0% Opportunity Share (RB5)
• 19.7% Target Share (RB2)

To put his production and consistency into context, Achane is currently the only RB to rank within the top 24 in fantasy scoring in EVERY game this season. Naturally, the most significant concern for Miami going forward will be the QB position, considering Tua Tagovailoa may no longer be their signal caller heading into next season. Regardless, we have seen Achane continuously produce alongside multiple QBs this season, offering hope that he will remain an elite fantasy RB1 for 2026 and beyond.

Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints, RB – Stock Down

Alvin Kamara has been dealing with multiple injuries since Week 12, forcing him to miss their last four matchups. More concerning is the decline in his performance, as he has not delivered the elite fantasy RB production we have come to expect from him over the past eight seasons. Assuming he does not return in their final two games, he would finish the year averaging a career low in yards per touch (4.0), while ranking outside of the top 40 in metrics such as EPA per Rush (-0.22), success rate (32.1%), and explosive run rate (5.3%). Unfortunately, this could signal a turning point for his dynasty value, as we typically see RBs decline at around ages 28 and 29. We saw this most recently with several former RB1s, such as Ezekiel Elliott, Melvin Gordon, and DeMarco Murray. And with the Saints remaining one of the most inefficient offenses in the league, ranking in the bottom 10 in EPA per Play and Success Rate this year, Kamara’s upside will remain limited heading into the 2026 season. 

Caleb Williams – Chicago Bears, QB – Stock Up

One of the most important storylines, from a dynasty perspective, has been the resurgence of the Chicago Bears and the impact Ben Johnson has had on their offense. To put their season into perspective, the Bears ranked 26th in EPA per Play (-0.07) in 2024. With Johnson as their playcaller, they currently rank within the top 10 at 0.06 EPA per Play. As a result, Caleb Williams has taken a significant step forward this season, currently on pace to finish as a QB1 for the first time in his career. Through 16 weeks, Williams is the QB9 in Fantasy Points per Game (18.5) and QB4 in Expected Fantasy Points (19.0). Although there is plenty of room for improvement in his efficiency profile, keep in mind that Williams is currently averaging career highs in EPA per Play (0.07), Success Rate (44.4%), and Air Yards per Attempt (8.7). Most importantly, the Bears have clearly found their long-term answer at head coach, which should only benefit Williams, Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland, and Luther Burden as this young offense continues to grow over the next several years.

Luke Musgrave – Green Bay Packers, TE – Stock Down

With the recent injury to Tucker Kraft, there was some hope that Luke Musgrave would take on a more prominent role in Green Bay’s offense, potentially revitalizing his dynasty value. However, despite an increase in snaps and routes, he continues to split opportunities with John FitzPatrick and Josh Whyle. In six games since Kraft’s injury, Musgrave has only accounted for 10.9% of Green Bay’s targets, playing well behind Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and even Jayden Reed. And unless he can turn things around to close out the season, his time with the Packers could be slowly coming to an end. Especially with Kraft eligible for an extension next year, Musgrave could be approaching his final season with Green Bay in 2026.

Prospect Watch List

Entering the season, two prospects were neck-and-neck for WR1 in the 2027 draft: Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith and Alabama’s Ryan Williams. Following elite freshman campaigns, many expected Smith and Williams to add to their resumes this season. With the year now coming to a close, there is no question that Smith has been the far better WR this year, setting career highs in multiple metrics. On top of that, he is second in the nation among Power 4 WRs in Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt (3.09), behind only Duce Robinson this season. To put that into perspective, Smith has now produced back-to-back +95th percentile campaigns, which will have him on track to be one of my highest-graded WRs in recent history. As of right now, Smith grades in the 99th percentile, which would place him right next to Ja’Marr Chase and Amari Cooper – two of the most accomplished college prospects since 2010. And assuming he can maintain his level of production, Smith should be the unquestioned WR1 of the 2027 class and in contention to be the first overall pick in dynasty rookie drafts.

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As we approach the 2026 NFL Draft, here is a list of the most productive college football WRs this season: